What is the true cut-off in the high iq societies?




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What is the true cut-off in the high IQ societies?

By Hindemburg Melao Jr.

Translated with Power Translator

To see all details on the methodology, click here:



http://planeta.terra.com.br/educacao/sigmasociety/Norma_setembro_2003.doc

http://planeta.terra.com.br/educacao/sigmasociety/_new_norm_2004.xls

http://planeta.terra.com.br/educacao/sigmasociety/_new_norm_2004_excel95.xls

What is the most intelligent group? The people that work in MIT (avg IQ 144) or the members of Prometheus (avg IQ 167)? Intuitively (based on ITA level) I would say: "members of Prometheus". But if the question went on members of ISPE (avg IQ 154) or people of MIT (avg IQ 144), I would say that the people of MIT. If the question is between members of Mega (avg 179) and Nobel prize winners in Science (avg 159), I would say that Nobel's average in Science (obviously include in the average those with bad works, very below the average of Mega) they are more intelligent than the average of Mega Society. However, among the communities of high IQ it is habit to diffuse exactly the contrary idea! Now that Sigma Test new norm is available on-line, I can mention this as reference to correct these distortions.

Levels of theoretical cut-off and true cut-off in some high IQ societies, with base in the new norm for Sigma Test, Mega Test and Titan Test. In the case of Giga Society, the true cut-off is estimated with base in the current norm of the tests accepted for admission.
Sigma X (new norm) IQ>260

True rarity: 1 in 63,000,000,000 (around the number of people born since 60,000 B.C.)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 131,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (+10sd)

Sigma IX (new norm) IQ>244

True rarity: 1 in 3,500,000,000 (around 55% of the world population in Jan 2004)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 8,860,000,000,000,000,000 (+9sd)

Sigma VIII (new norm) IQ>228

True rarity: 1 in 190,000,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 1,607,000,000.000.000 (+8sd)

Probable accuracy limit based on the difficult level of questions of the Sigma Test:

p-IQ around 215

r-IQ around 185

True rarity: 1 in 20,000,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 3,000,000,000,000 (+7sd to +7.5sd)

Sigma VII (new norm) IQ>212

True rarity: 1 in 11,200,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 781,000,000,000 (+7sd)

Sigma VI (new norm) IQ>196

True rarity: 1 in 680,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 1,014,000,000 (+6sd)

Mega Society IQ>176 (raw 43+)

True rarity (exclude fortunate): 1 in 130,000 (people approved in Mega or Titan)

True rarity (include fortunate): 1 in 19,000 (people approved in Mega or Titan)

True rarity: around 1 in 100,000 (by Bob Seitz norm, people approved in Mega)

True rarity: around 1 in 500 (people approved in supervised tests)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 1,000,000 (+4.75342sd)




Giga Society (current norms) IQ>196 (around 170 in new norm)

True rarity: around 1 in 100,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 1,000,000,000 (+5.99781sd)
Probable accuracy limit based on the difficult level of questions of the Mega Test:

p-IQ around 185

r-IQ around 170

True rarity: 1 in 100,000

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 20.000,000 (+5sd to +5.5sd)

Sigma V (new norm) IQ>180

True rarity: 1 in 48,000 (people approved in the Sigma Test new norm)

True rarity: around 1 in 300,000 (people approved in the Sigma Test VI old norm)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 3,500,000 (+5sd)



Prometheus IQ>164 (raw 36+)

True rarity (exclude fortunate): 1 in 24,000 (people approved in Mega or Titan)

True rarity (include fortunate): 1 in 5,400 (people approved in Mega or Titan)

True rarity: around 1 in 300 (people approved in supervised tests)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 30,000 (+4.01281sd)

Platinum IQ>164.3

True rarity: 1 in 3,600 (people approved in the Sigma Test new norm)

True rarity: around 1 in 30,000 (people approved in home tests)

True rarity: around 1 in 300 (people approved in supervised tests)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 34,400 (+4.02021sd)

Sigma IV IQ>164

True rarity: 1 in 3,400 (people approved in the Sigma Test new norm)

True rarity: around 1 in 30,000 (people approved in Sigma Assoc. Test or Sigma Analogy Test)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 31,600 (+4sd)



TNS IQ>150 (raw 24+)

True rarity: 1 in 3,400 (people approved in Mega or Titan)

True rarity: around 1 in 200 (people approved in supervised tests)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 1,000 (+3.09023sd)



Sigma III IQ>148

True rarity: 1 in 310 (people approved in the Sigma Test new norm)

True rarity: around 1 in 700 (people approved in Sigma Assoc. Test or Sigma Analogy Test)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 740 (+3sd)


Probable accuracy limit based on the difficult level of questions of average supervised tests:

p-IQ around 145

r-IQ around 140

True rarity: 1 in 200

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 37,000,000 (Cattell Culture Fair III, ceiling = 187, sd=16, true ceiling ~ 140)

Mensa IQ>133

True rarity: 1 in 50

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 50 (+2.05375sd)

Sigma II

True rarity: 1 in 37 (new norm)

True rarity: 1 in 44 (old norm)

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 44 (+2sd)



International High IQ Society IQ>126

True rarity: 1 in 20

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 20 (+1.64485sd)

World Association for Highly Intelligent People IQ>121

True rarity: 1 in 10

Theoretical rarity: 1 in 10 (+1.28155sd)

True cut-off it is always smaller than true rarity, due to the uncertainty in the norm and due to the uncertainty in each individual score. If a person marks 170, for instance, there are 50% of chances of the true IQ to be smaller than 170 and 50% of chances of being higher than 170. If we suppose that the sd down is approximately 5 (obviously the sd below and above 170 they are different because the uncertainty cannot be symmetrical if she is affected by the rarity), then there are 16% of chances of true IQ being 165 or minus, therefore if there are 100 approved people with score 170, around 16 of those people they should have IQ 165 or below. Then if the true rarity level is 1 in 10,000 (theoretical rarity for 3.719sd is 1 in 164,700) and the society has 100 members approved with scores very close to the theoretical cut-off, then the true cut-off is about 2.326sd (sd=5) smaller than 3.719sd (sd=16), that is +2.992sd, therefore the true cut-off in this society is 1 in 720, instead of 1 in 164,700, equivalent to IQ 148, instead of IQ 170.


The level of true rarity represents the average of the true approved IQs with minimum score. The cut-off true it represents IQ true minimum of the approved ones, that it is much smaller than the average of approved IQs with minimum score.

A society with theoretical cut-off 1 in 1,000,000 that it uses Mega Test or Titan Test (or similar) for admission, have a true level of rarity close to 1 in 20,000 and the true cut-off is lower than that, because if the average IQ of approved people with minimum score is 176 (162 true IQ), and if exist uncertainty in the scores of them, some people with minimum score have true IQ 155 or around this. When the society uses tests supervised (timed) as valid for admission, the problem becomes much more serious, because these tests are measuring speed for very primary tasks, instead of measuring deep and original thought, and the cut-off should be close to the ceiling of difficulty of the questions, that it doesn't exceed 140 or 145.

Then when you read an information on average IQ of a Nobel prize winner in Science to be 155 and an engineer of MIT to have 145, you need to consider that these values were based on tests of speed with low roof. They could have true IQ 125 or 130, if they had never produced effective anything, but they could have true IQ 180 or above, if they produced grandiose original ideas. A person with score 193 in a test like Mega or Titan has close to 167 of true IQ, with base exclusively in the measured accomplishment degree for the level of difficulty of the questions of this test. But if the person has some production executes besides, and with level of difficulty is very high, then this makes a very big difference in the interpretation of the true IQ, considering the combined Mega score and accomplishment. A Nobel prize with mechanical work can only have 130 or 140, and other Nobel prize with creative work can have IQ 200 or 250.

A child prodigy with IQ 300 at 3 yo, 5 yo or 10 yo can have only 140 or 150 in adult age. The fact that she/he to have an accelerated development on childhood doesn't mean that she will have development rhythm and, the most important, is that to have precocity for medium tasks that adults accomplish it doesn't implicate that the child, when she becomes adult, she will have abilities that the normal adults don't possess. For that reason none score reached in the childhood can have any serious importance in the adult age.



Considering all those factors, the average IQ of a Nobel prize winner in Science for having accomplished a creative work is clearly higher than the average IQ of the members of Mega or Sigma V.
Appendix
Norms for Mega and Titan, Sep. 2003, by Hindemburg Melao Jr.
Left side: norms without correction, raw based on the testees scores abundance.
Right side: norms with correction based in the fact that higher scores have less fortunate points than low scores. For instance: if you solve 10 questions and you takes a risk 38 remaining answers, you can mark more points luckily than if you solve 40 questions and takes a risk 8 remaining answers.


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