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Table 3. Summary of Results







Hypothesis 1a and 1b:

Strong Partisans vs. Weak Partisans



Hypothesis 2a and 2b:

Homogeneous Groups vs. No Groups



Hypothesis 3a and 3b:

Heterogeneous Groups vs. No Groups



Hypothesis 4a and 4b:

Weak Partisans in Homogeneous Groups vs. Strong Partisans in Heterogeneous Groups



Energy Policy

Energy Priority

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported




Oil Effectiveness

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported




Alternative Effectiveness

Not significant

Supported

Supported

Supported

Health Policy

Health Priority

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported




Competition Effectiveness

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported




Subsidies Effectiveness

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported

Downstream Effects

Energy Group

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported




Health Group

Supported

Supported

Supported

Supported






Figure 1a.


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.


Figure 1b.
Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.
Figure 2-3A


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 2-3B


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 4a.


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 4b.


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 5.


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 6.


Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.

Figure 7.



Note: Brackets surrounding each dot indicate 95% confidence interval.


1 This coheres with social identity theory – indeed, motivated reasoning should be driven by individuals’ desire to be loyal to and consistent with their own group and maximize difference with the out-group. Partisan groups clearly are important to political categorization (Smith et al. 2005, Nicholson 2012,).

2 Pew data available at: http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/10/partisan-divide-over-alternative-energy-widens/?src=prc-headline. Similar poll results demonstrate partisan differences regarding health care. The Kaiser Family Foundation found that, between October of 2011 and February of 2012 (when this study took place), favorability for President Obama’s Healthcare Affordability Act ranged from 62% to 66%. Among Republicans, on the hand, during this same time period, favorability of the Act ranged from 11% to 16%. Kaiser data available at: http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/health-tracking-poll-interactive.cfm.

3 Due to the directional predictions of the hypotheses, all tests of significance in this study are one-tailed (Blalock 1979, 163). This is consistent with previous work on directional shifts in preference formation (for e.g. Druckman and Nelson 2003, footnote 16).

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