Rounds: The experiment consists of a sequence of "rounds". Guessing Which Cup is Used




Дата канвертавання27.04.2016
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Cascade Instructions

  • Rounds: The experiment consists of a sequence of "rounds".

  • Guessing Which Cup is Used: In each round, we will use the computer to simulate the draw of a marble from a "cup". There are two cups, with different mixes of colored marbles, and you will be asked to guess the cup that is being used.

  • Choosing Which Cup to Use: First, we draw a computer-generated random number which will be either 1, 2, ... 6. Think of this as the throw of a die with 6 sides, with each side being equally likely.

    * If the roll of the die yields 1 - 3, then the draw will be from the Blue cup, which contains 2 blue marble(s) and 1 red marble(s).
    * If the roll of the die yields 4 - 6, then the draw will be from the Red cup, which contains 2 red marble(s) and 1 blue marble(s).

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Blue Cup




Red Cup

Used if the die throw is 1 - 3




Used if the die throw is 4 - 6

Contents: B B R
2 blue marble(s) and 1 red marble(s)




Contents: R R B
2 red marble(s) and 1 blue marble(s)

  • Private Draws: You will not be told in advance the result of the die throw, so you will not know which cup is being used. Once the computerized die throw determines the cup to be used, each of you will be shown a randomly selected marble from that cup. This draw will be your private information and should not be shared with other participants.

  • Independent Draws: The draws will be done independently, so it is as if we were to shake the cup, pick a marble at random, show it to you, return it to the cup, and shake it again before drawing another randomly selected marble for the next person, so the contents of the cup are always the same when a draw is made.

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  • Groups: All participants are in the same group of size 6.

  • Decision Sequence: The same cup, Red or Blue, will be used to obtain an independent draw for each person in the group. After each person has seen a private draw, we will begin the sequence in which you will get a chance to indicate the cup that you think is being used (indicate R for red or B for blue). Each of you will be asked in turn for your prediction.

  • Information: The first person's prediction will be announced via the computer screen, but the person's private draw is not revealed. Then the computer will prompt the second person to submit a prediction, which will be announced, but again that person's private draw will not be revealed.

  • End of Period: We will continue in this manner, giving everyone a chance to make a prediction in sequence, at which time the computer will reveal which cup was actually used. The private draws, however, will never be revealed.

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  • Earnings: Each person's money payoff will depend on whether their own predicton turns out to be correct. You will earn:
    $2.00 for a correct prediction, and
    $0.50 for an incorrect prediction.


  • Total Earnings: Your earnings in each period are added to those from previous rounds, and the computer will keep track of your total earnings for all periods.



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Question 1: The order of predictions in each round is based on:
a) your past record of correct predictions.
b) is independent of whether or not your predictions have been correct or of your position in the previous prediction sequence.

Question 2: If the 1st person sees a Blue draw, then the 2nd person is more likely to see a Red draw.
a) False; it's as if the marble is returned to the cup to be shaken before the next draw.
b) True, the first blue draw gets one blue marble out of the way.

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Question 1: The order of predictions in each round is based on:
(a) your past record of correct predictions.
(b) is independent of whether or not your predictions have been correct or of your position in the previous prediction sequence.
Your answer, (a) is Incorrect, the positions are determined by random draws, which do not depend on anything that happened in previous rounds.

Question 2: If the 1st person sees a Blue draw, then the 2nd person is more likely to see a Red draw.
(a) False; it's as if the marble is returned to the cup to be shaken before the next draw.
(b) True, the first blue draw gets one blue marble out of the way.
Your answer, (b) is Incorrect, the draw probabilities do not change; it's as if a marble drawn is returned to the cup to be shaken with the other marbles before another draw is made.

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  • Record Sheet: Your information and decisions will be organized in a Record Sheet , shown below. On the left side, the first column shows the Round number, and the second column shows Your Draw, blue B or red R, for this round.

  • Predictions: The next columns display predictions in the Order (1, 2, ...) that they are made. When it is your turn to make a prediction, you will see a Predict box. Then enter your prediction, Blue Cup or Red Cup, in the box and remember to press the grey Predict button. An asterisk will be used to distinguish your past predictions from those of others.

  • Updating History: If it is not your turn, you will be able to see predictons being made as the page refreshes. Total earnings are recorded in the far right column. These total earnings will include an initial payment of $6.00 that you receive in addition to what you earn during this process.




Your




Cup

Your

Total




Round

Draw

1

2

3

4

5

6

Used

Earnings

Earnings




1

(your draw, R or B appears here)


Red Cup
Blue Cup

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*

*

*

*

*



*

*

*

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