Species group dir spec iba eu res red pref




Дата канвертавання25.04.2016
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Appendix 1. Studied species of conservation concern in different classifications. DIR = EU BIRDS Directive species (Annex I), SPEC = species of European conservation concern (unfavourable conservation status: SPEC1–SPEC3, BirdLife International 2004a), IBA = species of Arctic or boreal biome (Heath and Evans 2000), EU = threatened species in European Union (unfavourable conservation status, BirdLife International 2004b), RES = species of special responsibility in Finland (Rassi et al. 2001), RED = red-listed species in Finland in 2010 (near-threatened and threatened species, Rassi et al. 2010), PREF = species preferring boreal old-growth or mature (coniferous or deciduous) forests (Väisänen et al. 1998, Virkkala et al. 1994, Virkkala and Rajasärkkä 2007). * Species not breeding in Finland, but occurs in regions to the south or south-east of Finland (see text).
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Species group DIR SPEC IBA EU RES RED PREF

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Species of forest (n =51)
Hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia + – – + – – –

Black grouse Tetrao tetrix + + – + + + –

Capercaillie T. urogallus + – – + + + +

*Black stork Ciconia nigra + + – + – – –

European honey buzzard Pernis apivorus + – – – – + –

Black kite Milvus migrans + + – – – + +

*Short-toed snake eagle Circaetus gallicus + + – – – – –

*Lesser spotted eagle Aquila pomarina + + – + – – –

Golden eagle A. chrysaetos + + – + – + +

*Booted eagle Hieraetus pennatus + + – + – – –


Osprey Pandion haliaetus + + – – – + –

Merlin Falco columbarius + – – + – – –

Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola – + – + – – –

Eurasian eagle owl Bubo bubo + + – – + + –

Northern hawk owl Surnia ulula + – – – – – –

Eurasian pygmy owl Glaucidium passerinum + – – – + – +

Ural owl Strix uralensis + – + – – – –

Great grey owl S. nebulosa + – + – – – –

Boreal owl Aegolius funereus + – – – + + –

Eurasian nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus + + – + – – –

Wryneck Jynx torquilla – + – + – + –

Grey-headed woodpecker Picus canus + + – + – – +

*Green woodpecker P. viridis – + – + – – –

Black woodpecker Dryocopus martius + – – – – – +

*Middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopos medius + – – – – – –

White-backed woodpecker D. leucotos + – – – – + +

Lesser spotted woodpekcer D. minor – – – – – – +

Three-toed woodpecker Picoides tridactylus + + – + + – +

Woodlark Lullula arborea + + – + – – –Bohemian waxwing Bombycilla garrulus – – + – – – –
Common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus – + – + + – –

Mistle thrush Turdus viscivorus – – – – – – +

Barred warbler Sylvia nisoria + – – – – + –

Greenish warbler Phylloscopus trochiloides – – – – – – +

Arctic warbler Ph. borealis – – + – – + –

Wood warbler Ph. sibilatrix – + – + – + –

Red-breasted flycatcher Ficedula parva + – – – – – +

*Collared flycatcher F. albicollis + – – – – – –

*Marsh tit Parus palustris – + – – – – –

Willow tit P. montanus – – – + – – –


Siberian tit P. cinctus – – + – – – +

Crested tit P. cristatus – + – – – – –

Eurasian treecreeper Certhia familiaris – – – – – – +

Eurasian golden oriole Oriolus oriolus – – – + – + –

Siberian jay Perisoreus infaustus – + + + + + +

Brambling Fringilla montifringilla – – + – – – –

Two-barred crossbill Loxia leucoptera – – + – – – –

Parrot crossbill L. pytyopsittacus – – + – + – –

Common rosefinch Carpodacus erythrinus – – – – – + –

Pine grospeak Pinicola enucleator – – + – + – +

Rustic bunting Emberiza rustica – – + + – + –

Species of mires (n =21)
Willow grouse Lagopus lagopus – – – + – + –

Hen harrier Circus cyaneus + + – + – + –

Common crane Grus grus + – – + – – –

European golden plover Pluvialis apricaria + – – + – – –

Dunlin Calidris alpina + + – + – + –

Broad-billed sandpiper Limicola falcinellus – + – + + – –

Ruff Philomachus pugnax + + – + – + –

Jack snipe Lymnocryptes minimus – + + + + – –

Bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica + – + + – – –

Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus – – – + + – –


Spotted redshank Tringa erythropus – + + + + – –

Common greenshank T. nebularia – – + – + – –

Wood sandpiper T. glareola + + – + + – –

Red-necked phalarobe Phalaropus lobatus + – + – – + –

Short-eared owl Asio flammeus + + – + – – –

Meadow pipit Anthus pratensis – – – + – + –

Red-throated pipit A. cervinus – – + + – + –

Yellow wagtail Motacilla flava – – – + – + –

Great grey shrike Lanius excubitor – + – + – – –

Lapland longspur Calcarius lapponicus – – + – – – –


Little bunting Emberiza pusilla – – – + + – –
Species of marshlands (n = 17)
Great bittern Botaurus stellaris + + – + – – –

*Little bittern Ixobrychus minutes + + – + – – –

Western marsh harrier Circus aeruginosus + – – – – – –

Montagu's harrier C. pygargus + – – – – + –

Spotted crake Porzana porzana – – – – – + –

Little crake P. parva – – – – – + –

Common snipe Gallinago gallinago – + – + – – –

Great snipe G. media + + – + – + –

Black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa – + – + – + –

Common redshank Tringa totanus – + – + – + –


Savi's warbler Locustella luscinioides – – – – – + –

*Aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola + + – + – – –

Great reed warbler A. arundinaceus – – – + – + –

Bearded parrotbill Panurus biarmicus – – – – – + –

Penduline tit Remiz pendulinus – – – – – + –

Yellow-breasted bunting Emberiza aureola – + – – – + –

Reed bunting E. schoeniclus – – – + – – –
Species of arctic mountain habitats (n = 11)
Rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta – – – + – – –

Rough-legged buzzard Buteo lagopus – – + – – – –

Common ringed plover Charadrius hiaticula – – – – – + –

Dotterel C. morinellus + – – + – + –Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii – – + + – + –

Long-tailed skua Stercorarius longicaudus – – + – – – –

Snowy owl Nyctea scandiaca + + + + – + –

Horned lark Eremophila alpestris – – – + – + –

Bluethroat Luscinia svecica + – – – – + –

Arctic redpoll Carduelis hornemanni – – + – – – –
Snow bunting Plectrophenax nivalis – – + + – + –

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Appendix 2. Mean area of focal habitat protected, mean total area of focal habitat (km2) and percentage of habitat protected in 5% hotspot squares of each habitat type and in randomly selected, unprotected squares in the different vegetation zones. In the southern boreal, middle boreal and northern boreal zone, the number of squares were 79, 58 and 54, respectively, for the protected and unprotected squares in every focal habitat type.

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Habitat type Southern boreal Middle boreal Northern boreal

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Protected Total Protected Protected Total Protected Protected Total Protected

(km2) (km2) (%) (km2) (km2) (%) (km2) (km2) (%)

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Forest


Protected squares 8.88 48.26 18.4 18.45 56.52 32.6 64.10 67.96 94.3

Unprotected squares 0.50 49.47 1.0 1.05 57.91 1.8 11.44 62.97 18.2


Mire

Protected squares 4.14 7.49 55.3 22.41 37.75 59.4 37.79 41.63 90.8

Unprotected squares 0.31 2.89 10.7 2.34 19.87 11.8 10.10 35.62 28.4
Marshland

Protected squares 1.53 2.37 64.6 0.73 1.10 66.4 0.16 0.34 47.6

Unprotected squares 0.10 1.23 8.1 0.02 0.52 4.6 0.02 0.23 8.1
Mountain heath

Protected squares – – – – – – 68.11 70.06 97.2

Unprotected squares – – – – – – 10.94 21.84 50.1
Mountain birch

Protected squares – – – – – – 24.88 26.16 95.1

Unprotected squares – – – – – – 4.96 12.89 38.5

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Appendix 3. Climate variable importance of variables selected for analysis of each species. – = variable not selected in the analysis. Min. = minimum temperature, Max. = maximum temperature. Highest value in each analysis in bold. The importance of each variable in each model was measured using the randomisation option available in BIOMOD, where the algorithm calculates the correlation between the predictions from a calibrated model and a model where the focal predictor variable is randomised, and then subtracts this correlation value from 1. Due to this subtraction, increasing scores indicate increasing predictor importance (and values close to 0 that the predictions from the normal calibrated model and the randomised model differ only slightly and thus the focal variable has little influence in the model output).
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Species Model April– June temperature January temperature Precipitation Growing degree days

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Mean Min. Max. Mean Min. Max. April- Annual Mean Min. Max.

June


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Species of forests
Bonasa bonasia GAM – 0.217 – – 0.770 – 0.045 0.064 – – –

GBM – 0.386 – – 0.719 – 0.019 0.022 – – –

GLM – 0.234 – – 0.750 – 0.035 0.086 – – –

Tetrao tetrix GAM – – 0.384 – 0.543 – 0.009 0.065 – – –

GBM – – 0.582 – 0.426 – 0.011 0.004 – – –

GLM – – 0.425 – 0.482 – 0.008 0.044 – – –

T. urogallus GAM – – – – 0.402 – 0.003 0.002 – 0.533

GBM – – – – 0.394 – 0.006 0.001 – 0.593

GLM – – – – 0.442 – 0.002 0.000 – 0.535

Ciconia nigra GAM 0.263 – – – 0.307 – 0.174 0.389 – – –

GBM 0.382 – – – 0.498 – 0.034 0.134 – – –

GLM 0.281 – – – 0.419 – 0.148 0.280 – – –

Pernis apivorus GAM – – – – 0.175 – 0.188 0.480 0.285 – –

GBM – – – – 0.288 – 0.051 0.268 0.430 – –

GLM – – – – 0.218 – 0.132 0.472 0.404 – –

Milvus migrans GAM – – 0.736 – 0.106 – 0.352 0.366 – – –

GBM – – 0.914 – 0.137 – 0.077 0.058 – – –

GLM – – 0.735 – 0.150 – 0.352 0.363 – – –

Circaetus gallicus GAM – – – – – 0.100 0.411 0.294 – – 0.719

GBM – – – – – 0.247 0.088 0.029 – – 0.778

GLM – – – – – 0.120 0.362 0.245 – – 0.630

Aquila pomarina GAM – – – 0.836 – – 0.162 0.307 0.335 – –

GBM – – – 0.779 – – 0.022 0.066 0.393 – –

GLM – – – 0.899 – – 0.092 0.358 0.320 – –

A. chrysaetos GAM – – – – 0.483 – 0.346 0.000 – – 0.597

GBM – – – – 0.184 – 0.268 0.004 – – 0.716

GLM – – – – 0.333 – 0.271 0.000 – – 0.761

Hieraetus pennatus GAM – – – – – 0.085 0.263 0.577 – – 0.847

GBM – – – – – 0.224 0.075 0.249 – – 0.960

GLM – – – – – 0.216 0.208 0.509 – – 0.838

Pandion haliaetus GAM – – – – – 0.311 0.273 0.023 – – 0.233

GBM – – – – – 0.184 0.019 0.088 – – 0.626

GLM – – – – – 0.408 0.275 0.026 – – 0.318

Falco columbarius GAM – – – – 0.098 – 0.178 0.212 – – 0.619

GBM – – – – 0.051 – 0.025 0.023 – – 0.883

GLM – – – – 0.243 – 0.101 0.129 – – 0.805

Scolopax rusticola GAM – – 0.823 – – 0.036 0.007 0.011 – – –

GBM – – 0.727 – – 0.102 0.019 0.033 – – –

GLM – – 0.872 – – 0.042 0.000 0.040 – – –

Bubo bubo GAM – – – – 0.758 – 0.536 0.257 – – 0.379

GBM – – – – 0.720 – 0.121 0.035 – – 0.507

GLM – – – – 0.851 – 0.445 0.159 – – 0.402

Surnia ulula GAM – – 0.645 – 0.314 – 0.079 0.006 – – –

GBM – – 0.770 – 0.205 – 0.017 0.011 – – –

GLM – – 0.736 – 0.339 – 0.069 0.004 – – –

Glaucidium passerinum GAM – – – – 0.333 – 0.029 0.053 – 0.666

GBM – – – – 0.485 – 0.012 0.004 – 0.653

GLM – – – – 0.382 – 0.030 0.042 – 0.638

Strix uralensis GAM – – – 0.666 – – 0.023 0.039 – 0.349 –

GBM – – – 0.616 – – 0.017 0.057 – 0.443 –

GLM – – – 0.773 – – 0.074 0.120 – 0.394 –

S. nebulosa GAM – – – – – 0.603 0.061 0.358 – – 0.396

GBM – – – – – 0.771 0.050 0.010 – – 0.329

GLM – – – – – 0.841 0.183 0.472 – – 0.632

Aegolius funereus GAM – 0.466 – – 0.433 – 0.014 0.019 – – –

GBM – 0.553 – – 0.487 – 0.008 0.003 – – –

GLM – 0.492 – – 0.468 – 0.012 0.018 – – –

Caprimulgus europaeus GAM – – 0.938 – 0.050 – 0.029 0.041 – – –

GBM – – 0.881 – 0.063 – 0.008 0.075 – – –

GLM – – 0.956 – 0.068 – 0.091 0.064 – – –

Jynx torquilla GAM – – 0.024 – 0.510 – 0.381 0.533 – 0.000 –

GBM – – 0.259 – 0.691 – 0.042 0.072 – 0.066 –

GLM – – 0.028 – 0.708 – 0.447 0.473 – 0.083 –

Picus canus GAM – – – 0.501 – – 0.294 0.115 – – 0.111

GBM – – – 0.680 – – 0.171 0.023 – – 0.124

GLM – – – 0.540 – – 0.300 0.093 – – 0.185

P. viridis GAM – – 0.062 – – 0.719 0.632 0.277 – – –

GBM – – 0.185 – – 0.487 0.207 0.018 – – –

GLM – – 0.076 – – 0.698 0.632 0.304 – – –

Dryocopus martius GAM – 0.230 – 0.399 – – 0.152 0.263 – – –

GBM – 0.375 – 0.569 – – 0.020 0.064 – – –

GLM – 0.237 – 0.471 – – 0.108 0.239 – – –

Dendrocopos medius GAM – – 0.584 – 0.298 – 0.000 0.062 – – –

GBM – – 0.659 – 0.254 – 0.008 0.052 – – –

GLM – – 0.516 – 0.362 – 0.000 0.073 – – –

D. leucotos GAM 0.357 – – – 0.922 – 0.038 0.226 – – –

GBM 0.304 – – – 0.851 – 0.113 0.041 – – –

GLM 0.435 – – – 0.921 – 0.057 0.290 – – –

D. minor GAM – – 0.202 – – 0.420 0.078 0.166 – – –

GBM – – 0.421 – – 0.436 0.025 0.097 – – –

GLM – – 0.343 – – 0.437 0.030 0.119 – – –

Picoides tridactylus GAM – – – – 0.561 – 0.014 0.017 – 0.419 –

GBM – – – – 0.582 – 0.005 0.004 – 0.556 –

GLM – – – – 0.555 – 0.010 0.007 – 0.474 –

Lullula arborea GAM – – 0.493 – 0.113 – 0.021 0.224 – – –

GBM – – 0.690 – 0.190 – 0.001 0.056 – – –

GLM – – 0.507 – 0.130 – 0.020 0.215 – – –

Bombycilla garrulus GAM – – – – – 0.716 0.152 0.000 – – 0.503

GBM – – – – – 0.793 0.028 0.002 – – 0.357

GLM – – – – – 0.831 0.449 0.065 – – 0.523

Phoenicurus phoenicurus GAM – – – – – 0.026 0.470 0.331 – – 0.889

GBM – – – – – 0.312 0.049 0.057 – – 0.584

GLM – – – – – 0.027 0.394 0.334 – – 0.721

Turdus viscivorus GAM – 0.838 – – 0.442 – 0.351 0.398 – – –

GBM – 0.936 – – 0.241 – 0.070 0.057 – – –

GLM – 0.900 – – 0.411 – 0.279 0.374 – – –

Sylvia nisoria GAM – – 0.325 – 0.673 – 0.014 0.093 – – –

GBM – – 0.329 – 0.579 – 0.009 0.183 – – –

GLM – – 0.307 – 0.714 – 0.033 0.090 – – –

Phylloscopus trochiloides GAM – – – – – 0.951 0.327 0.205 – – 0.409

GBM – – – – – 0.715 0.079 0.029 – – 0.497

GLM – – – – – 0.942 0.354 0.220 – – 0.507

Ph. borealis GAM – – 0.179 0.866 – – 0.104 0.115 – – –

GBM – – 0.035 0.919 – – 0.015 0.016 – – –

GLM – – 0.463 0.737 – – 0.254 0.242 – – –

Ph. sibilatrix GAM – – – – – 0.149 0.035 0.032 – – 0.453

GBM – – – – – 0.140 0.015 0.040 – – 0.574

GLM – – – – – 0.364 0.021 0.060 – – 0.334

Ficedula parva GAM – – 0.397 – – 0.638 0.015 0.083 – – –

GBM – – 0.484 – – 0.604 0.010 0.051 – – –

GLM – – 0.420 – – 0.677 0.082 0.165 – – –

F. albicollis GAM – – 0.505 – 0.394 – 0.207 0.186 – – –

GBM – – 0.672 – 0.469 – 0.110 0.097 – – –

GLM – – 0.488 – 0.446 – 0.157 0.171 – – –

Parus palustris GAM – – + – – 0.347 0.280 0.133 0.103 – –

GBM – – + – – 0.386 0.130 0.030 0.226 – –

GLM – – + – – 0.398 0.188 0.127 0.160 – –

P. montanus GAM – – – – – 0.114 0.023 0.047 0.695 – –

GBM – – – – – 0.287 0.015 0.004 0.643 – –

GLM – – – – – 0.212 0.016 0.026 0.591 – –

P. cinctus GAM – – 0.596 – 0.647 – 0.000 0.037 – – –

GBM – – 0.360 – 0.612 – 0.006 0.033 – – –

GLM – – 0.666 – 0.636 – 0.054 0.216 – – –

P. cristatus GAM – – 0.695 – 0.282 – 0.571 0.420 – – –

GBM – – 0.797 – 0.381 – 0.028 0.012 – – –

GLM – – 0.653 – 0.283 – 0.609 0.412 – – –

Certhia familiaris GAM – – 0.437 0.378 – – 0.050 0.023 – – –

GBM – – 0.535 0.404 – – 0.002 0.010 – – –

GLM – – 0.450 0.388 – – 0.056 0.041 – – –

Oriolus oriolus GAM – – 0.896 – 0.104 – 0.130 0.206 – – –

GBM – – 1.006 – 0.106 – 0.044 0.009 – – –

GLM – – 0.947 – 0.122 – 0.132 0.186 – – –

Perisoreus infaustus GAM – – – – 0.392 – 0.029 0.104 – – 0.805

GBM – – – – 0.247 – 0.003 0.032 – – 0.673

GLM – – – – 0.498 – 0.033 0.000 – – 0.628

Fringilla montifringilla GAM – – 0.404 – 0.277 – 0.169 0.140 – – –

GBM – – 0.542 – 0.280 – 0.031 0.004 – – –

GLM – – 0.410 – 0.286 – 0.219 0.174 – – –

Loxia leucoptera GAM – – – – – 0.744 0.284 0.045 – – 0.484

GBM – – – – – 0.870 0.038 0.008 – – 0.109

GLM – – – – – 0.688 0.385 0.072 – – 0.618

L. pytyopsittacus GAM – – 0.651 – 0.147 – 0.392 0.068 – – –

GBM – – 0.814 – 0.179 – 0.066 0.014 – – –

GLM – – 0.669 – 0.180 – 0.319 0.053 – – –

Carpodacus erythrinus GAM – – 0.247 – – 0.764 0.159 0.003 – – –

GBM – – 0.217 – – 0.646 0.089 0.019 – – –

GLM – – 0.311 – – 0.676 0.139 0.000 – – –

Pinicola enucleator GAM – – – – – 0.404 0.000 0.067 – – 0.722

GBM – – – – – 0.367 0.001 0.033 – – 0.774

GLM – – – – – 0.436 0.000 0.047 – – 0.751
Emberiza rustica GAM – – – – – 0.549 0.111 0.008 – – 0.452

GBM – – – – – 0.372 0.001 0.008 – – 0.468

GLM – – – – – 0.561 0.148 0.009 – – 0.467
Species of mires
Lagopus lagopus GAM – – – – 0.034 – 0.078 0.172 – – 0.855

GBM – – – – 0.056 – 0.020 0.026 – – 0.969

GLM – – – – 0.113 – 0.067 0.125 – – 0.959

Circus cyaneus GAM – – 0.475 – – 0.625 0.144 0.139 – – –

GBM – – 0.345 – – 0.682 0.029 0.067 – – –

GLM – – 0.534 – – 0.720 0.145 0.112 – – –

Grus grus GAM – – – – 0.263 – 0.205 0.070 – – 0.423

GBM – – – – 0.368 – 0.279 0.012 – – 0.345

GLM – – – – 0.273 – 0.193 0.132 – – 0.511

Pluvialis apricaria GAM – – – – 0.030 – 0.215 0.230 – – 0.801

GBM – – – – 0.015 – 0.031 0.034 – – 0.982

GLM – – – – 0.061 – 0.224 0.235 – – 0.750

Calidris alpina GAM – – 0.877 – 0.208 – 0.319 0.506 – – –

GBM – – 0.957 – 0.186 – 0.025 0.140 – – –

GLM – – 0.796 – 0.190 – 0.298 0.482 – – –

Limicola falcinellus GAM – – – – 0.307 – 0.000 0.169 – – 0.820

GBM – – – – 0.087 – 0.022 0.103 – – 0.709

GLM – – – – 0.406 – 0.065 0.244 – – 0.821

Philomachus pugnax GAM – – – – – 0.021 0.266 0.015 – – 0.677

GBM – – – – – 0.066 0.099 0.004 – – 0.762

GLM – – – – – 0.021 0.262 0.013 – – 0.755

Lymnocryptes minimus GAM – – – – – 0.082 0.000 0.422 – – 0.693

GBM – – – – – 0.468 0.101 0.058 – – 0.113

GLM – – – – – 0.169 0.000 0.453 – – 0.853

Limosa lapponica GAM – – 0.987 – 0.171 – 0.000 0.675 – – –

GBM – – 0.964 – 0.022 – 0.284 0.067 – – –

GLM – – 0.950 – 0.205 – 0.416 0.368 – – –

Numenius phaeopus GAM – – – – 0.021 – 0.100 0.040 – – 0.884

GBM – – – – 0.019 – 0.007 0.011 – – 0.916

GLM – – – – 0.042 – 0.084 0.039 – – 0.895

Tringa erythropus GAM – – 0.513 – 0.446 – 0.000 0.327 – – –

GBM – – 0.094 – 0.627 – 0.028 0.207 – – –

GLM – – 0.588 – 0.388 – 0.182 0.250 – – –

T. nebularia GAM – – – – 0.135 – 0.034 0.019 – – 0.689

GBM – – – – 0.192 – 0.017 0.006 – – 0.680

GLM – – – – 0.196 – 0.026 0.020 – – 0.841

T. glareola GAM – – – 0.293 – – 0.136 0.006 – – 0.540

GBM – – – 0.268 – – 0.095 0.014 – – 0.515

GLM – – – 0.286 – – 0.119 0.004 – – 0.530

Phalaropus lobatus GAM – – – – 0.025 – 0.093 0.000 – – 0.970

GBM – – – – 0.008 – 0.037 0.021 – – 0.838

GLM – – – – 0.131 – 0.117 0.000 – – 0.985

Asio flammeus GAM – – – – – 0.353 0.202 0.131 – – 0.229

GBM – – – – – 0.441 0.065 0.046 – – 0.235

GLM – – – – – 0.318 0.169 0.127 – – 0.517

Anthus pratensis GAM – – – – – 0.137 0.162 0.016 – – 1.042

GBM – – – – – 0.054 0.072 0.004 – – 1.008

GLM – – – – – 0.117 0.173 0.038 – – 1.057

A. cervinus GAM – – 1.010 – 0.000 – 0.000 0.054 – – –

GBM – – 0.957 – 0.007 – 0.000 0.012 – – –

GLM – – 1.002 – 0.000 – 0.000 0.060 – – –

Motacilla flava GAM – – – – – 0.653 0.067 0.180 – – 0.222

GBM – – – – – 0.351 0.179 0.325 – – 0.240

GLM – – – – – 0.657 0.146 0.095 – – 0.362

Lanius excubitor GAM – – 0.879 – – 0.297 0.486 0.879 – – –

GBM – – 0.833 – – 0.278 0.044 0.158 – – –

GLM – – 0.836 – – 0.367 0.587 0.891 – – –

Calcarius lapponicus GAM 1.018 – – – 0.053 – 0.080 0.022 – – 0.000

GBM 0.147 – – – 0.021 – 0.002 0.007 – – 0.723

GLM 0.914 – – – 0.050 – 0.109 0.106 – – 0.312

Emberiza pusilla GAM – – – 0.784 – – 0.000 0.307 – – 0.503

GBM – – – 0.867 – – 0.011 0.197 – – 0.059

GLM – – – 0.796 – – 0.000 0.295 – – 0.480
Species of marshlands
Botaurus stellaris GAM – 0.524 – – – 0.499 0.060 0.006 – – –

GBM – 0.448 – – – 0.434 0.045 0.070 – – –

GLM – 0.498 – – – 0.525 0.092 0.000 – – –

Ixobrychus minutes GAM – – 0.793 – 0.064 – 0.105 0.185 – – –

GBM – – 0.890 – 0.101 – 0.019 0.065 – – –

GLM – – 0.697 – 0.153 – 0.083 0.122 – – –

Circus aeruginosus GAM – 0.568 – – 0.231 – 0.016 0.114 – – –

GBM – 0.528 – – 0.168 – 0.044 0.122 – – –

GLM – 0.547 – – 0.255 – 0.042 0.084 – – –

C. pygargus GAM 0.852 – – – 0.143 – 0.148 0.344 – – –

GBM 0.871 – – – 0.201 – 0.117 0.071 – – –

GLM 0.808 – – – 0.207 – 0.181 0.324 – – –

Porzana porzana GAM – – 0.450 – – 0.554 0.095 0.014 – – –

GBM – – 0.440 – – 0.447 0.043 0.115 – – –

GLM – – 0.465 – – 0.607 0.066 0.020 – – –

P. parva GAM 0.939 – – – – 0.166 0.146 0.240 – – 0.397

GBM 0.624 – – – – 0.535 0.007 0.049 – – 0.023

GLM 0.914 – – – – 0.588 0.000 0.000 – – 0.305

Gallinago gallinago GAM – – – – 0.017 – 0.212 0.051 – – 0.969

GBM – – – – 0.015 – 0.124 0.007 – – 0.916

GLM – – – – 0.014 – 0.200 0.043 – – 0.899

G. media GAM – – – – – 0.890 0.162 0.153 – – 0.234

GBM – – – – – 0.710 0.154 0.042 – – 0.280

GLM – – – – – 0.871 0.159 0.152 – – 0.395

Limosa limosa GAM – – – – – 0.276 0.229 0.036 – – 0.516

GBM – – – – – 0.278 0.122 0.048 – – 0.570

GLM – – – – – 0.208 0.176 0.088 – – 0.575

Tringa totanus GAM – – – – – 0.256 0.633 0.220 – – 0.140

GBM – – – – – 0.244 0.310 0.019 – – 0.498

GLM – – – – – 0.291 0.598 0.237 – – 0.093

Locustella luscinioides GAM – – – – 0.101 – 0.073 0.397 – – 0.456

GBM – – – – 0.107 – 0.027 0.120 – – 0.735

GLM – – – – 0.154 – 0.081 0.219 – – 0.539

Acrocephalus paludicola GAM – 0.622 – – – 0.552 0.365 0.000 – – –

GBM – 0.765 – – – 0.616 0.295 0.081 – – –

GLM – 0.822 – – – 0.803 0.574 0.360 – – –

A. arundinaceus GAM 0.755 – – – 0.136 – 0.043 0.147 – – –

GBM 0.815 – – – 0.160 – 0.006 0.036 – – –

GLM 0.647 – – – 0.251 – 0.023 0.089 – – –

Panurus biarmicus GAM – 0.562 – – 0.395 – 0.205 0.000 – – –

GBM – 0.605 – – 0.443 – 0.192 0.013 – – –

GLM – 0.541 – – 0.501 – 0.296 0.036 – – –

Remiz pendulinus GAM 0.584 – – – 0.297 – 0.021 0.179 – – –

GBM 0.700 – – – 0.299 – 0.012 0.071 – – –

GLM 0.442 – – – 0.388 – 0.030 0.155 – – –

Emberiza aureola GAM – – – – – 1.015 0.230 0.216 – – 0.412

GBM – – – – – 1.008 0.070 0.051 – – 0.323

GLM – – – – – 1.045 0.000 0.349 – – 0.638

Emberiza schoeniclus GAM – – – – – 0.010 0.150 0.023 – – 0.912

GBM – – – – – 0.103 0.166 0.016 – – 0.853

GLM – – – – – 0.010 0.178 0.043 – – 0.879
Species of arctic mountain habitats
Lagopus muta GAM – 1.012 – – 0.083 – 0.179 0.009 – – –

GBM – 0.896 – – 0.007 – 0.057 0.058 – – –

GLM – 0.988 – – 0.111 – 0.149 0.012 – – –

Buteo lagopus GAM – – – – 0.359 – 0.175 0.163 – – 0.667

GBM – – – – 0.019 – 0.009 0.008 – – 0.943

GLM – – – – 0.387 – 0.174 0.145 – – 0.729

Charadrius hiaticula GAM – – – – 0.204 – 0.456 0.255 – – 0.942

GBM – – – – 0.260 – 0.101 0.031 – – 0.974

GLM – – – – 0.199 – 0.472 0.271 – – 0.844

C. morinellus GAM – – – – – 0.111 0.114 0.066 – 1.033

GBM – – – – – 0.066 0.084 0.055 – 0.921

GLM – – – – – 0.192 0.120 0.075 – 1.031

Calidris temminckii GAM – – 0.908 – 0.051 – 0.144 0.093 – – –

GBM – – 0.976 – 0.021 – 0.016 0.024 – – –

GLM – – 0.938 – 0.099 – 0.172 0.086 – – –

Stercorarius longicaudus GAM 0.999 – – – 0.000 – 0.031 0.000 – – –

GBM 0.947 – – – 0.055 – 0.006 0.013 – – –

GLM 1.019 – – – 0.000 – 0.063 0.000 – – –

Nyctea scandiaca GAM – – 0.972 – 0.162 – 0.130 0.109 – – –

GBM – – 0.983 – 0.041 – 0.012 0.011 – – –

GLM – – 0.982 – 0.264 – 0.065 0.067 – – –

Eremophila alpestris GAM – – 0.976 – – 0.235 0.000 0.122 – – –

GBM – – 0.951 – – 0.356 0.039 0.028 – – –

GLM – – 0.975 – – 0.333 0.000 0.153 – – –

Luscinia svecica GAM – – – – – 0.824 0.092 0.083 – – 0.113

GBM – – – – – 0.518 0.020 0.013 – – 0.379

GLM – – – – – 0.584 0.143 0.093 – – 0.093

Carduelis hornemanni GAM – – 0.991 – 0.028 – 0.000 0.000 – – –

GBM – – 1.012 – 0.014 – 0.003 0.017 – – –

GLM – – 1.033 – 0.000 – 0.051 0.000 – – –

Plectrophenax nivalis GAM – – – – – 0.049 0.297 0.221 – 0.971

GBM – – – – – 0.011 0.115 0.045 – 0.949

GLM – – – – – 0.116 0.277 0.182 – 1.016
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Appendix 4. Cross-validation of AUC, kappa and TSS (true skill statistic) values in generalized additive models (GAM), generalized boosting method (GBM) and generalized linear models (GLM) and prevalence of the species.


______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Species group AUC Kappa TSS Prevalence

________________________ ________________________ _________________________


GAM GBM GLM GAM GBM GLM GAM GBM GLM

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



Species of forest
Bonasa bonasia 0.939 0.953 0.938 0.742 0.778 0.740 0.748 0.779 0.753 0.390

Tetrao tetrix 0.945 0.955 0.945 0.764 0.774 0.758 0.777 0.784 0.769 0.394

T. urogallus 0.952 0.957 0.952 0.784 0.789 0.783 0.796 0.807 0.797 0.352

Ciconia nigra 0.887 0.992 0.880 0.602 0.689 0.604 0.621 0.698 0.621 0.299

Pernis apivorus 0.840 0.894 0.847 0.603 0.701 0.625 0.587 0.685 0.602 0.674

Milvus migrans 0.850 0.875 0.852 0.635 0.633 0.641 0.634 0.631 0.639 0.509

Circaetus gallicus 0.871 0.901 0.857 0.576 0.602 0.565 0.617 0.640 0.606 0.287

Aquila pomarina 0.904 0.941 0.892 0.611 0.692 0.609 0.684 0.777 0.682 0.184

A. chrysaetos 0.856 0.878 0.858 0.581 0.639 0.595 0.581 0.633 0.600 0.362

Hieraetus pennatus 0.867 0.905 0.855 0.478 0.591 0.475 0.617 0.665 0.607 0.192
Pandion haliaetus 0.928 0.934 0.926 0.705 0.744 0.725 0.715 0.719 0.720 0.280

Falco columbarius 0.980 0.981 0.979 0.820 0.849 0.838 0.874 0.892 0.881 0.235

Scolopax rusticola 0.887 0.912 0.887 0.676 0.673 0.675 0.673 0.680 0.672 0.662

Bubo bubo 0.730 0.819 0.686 0.330 0.495 0.297 0.330 0.495 0.297 0.500

Surnia ulula 0.989 0.990 0.987 0.889 0.899 0.887 0.940 0.938 0.938 0.151

Glaucidium passerinum 0.936 0.946 0.933 0.674 0.703 0.666 0.726 0.761 0.729 0.252

Strix uralensis 0.945 0.955 0.940 0.689 0.731 0.688 0.753 0.790 0.749 0.169

S. nebulosa 0.976 0.977 0.972 0.735 0.734 0.694 0.878 0.859 0.879 0.085

Aegolius funereus 0.933 0.944 0.931 0.712 0.742 0.714 0.716 0.763 0.715 0.380

Caprimulgus europaeus 0.786 0.863 0.784 0.519 0.577 0.495 0.480 0.571 0.461 0.687

Jynx torquilla 0.835 0.908 0.834 0.545 0.642 0.559 0.582 0.675 0.594 0.790

Picus canus 0.851 0.882 0.845 0.554 0.619 0.540 0.562 0.632 0.551 0.432

P. viridis 0.920 0.943 0.913 0.676 0.741 0.681 0.684 0.746 0.681 0.693

Dryocopus martius 0.904 0.934 0.898 0.667 0.731 0.658 0.688 0.740 0.680 0.629

Dendrocopos medius 0.907 0.923 0.905 0.674 0.719 0.669 0.708 0.739 0.705 0.370

D. leucotos 0.862 0.887 0.858 0.526 0.542 0.518 0.624 0.665 0.614 0.184

D. minor 0.851 0.891 0.845 0.515 0.621 0.517 0.568 0.650 0.553 0.752

Picoides tridactylus 0.960 0.964 0.959 0.760 0.767 0.753 0.804 0.816 0.807 0.262

Lullula arborea 0.828 0.906 0.814 0.639 0.700 0.620 0.591 0.670 0.575 0.662

Bombycilla garrulus 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.896 0.921 0.904 0.966 0.963 0.962 0.084
Phoenicurus phoenicurus 0.846 0.880 0.850 0.519 0.589 0.528 0.566 0.630 0.560 0.819

Turdus viscivorus 0.845 0.882 0.830 0.568 0.633 0.550 0.712 0.723 0.696 0.816

Sylvia nisoria 0.935 0.944 0.935 0.727 0.751 0.727 0.754 0.770 0.749 0.322

Phylloscopus trochiloides 0.943 0.940 0.944 0.684 0.710 0.685 0.769 0.758 0.771 0.130

Ph. borealis 0.987 0.987 0.987 0.826 0.819 0.834 0.903 0.908 0.906 0.095

Ph. sibilatrix 0.911 0.935 0.906 0.635 0.688 0.656 0.682 0.720 0.682 0.709

Ficedula parva 0.934 0.944 0.936 0.716 0.726 0.714 0.745 0.753 0.750 0.331

F. albicollis 0.892 0.907 0.884 0.580 0.645 0.571 0.669 0.698 0.664 0.187

Parus palustris 0.918 0.939 0.920 0.699 0.757 0.706 0.698 0.767 0.701 0.627

P. montanus 0.938 0.958 0.933 0.725 0.793 0.722 0.709 0.792 0.705 0.634
P. cinctus 0.995 0.995 0.993 0.864 0.885 0.858 0.957 0.940 0.941 0.073

P. cristatus 0.841 0.934 0.849 0.603 0.726 0.593 0.621 0.739 0.599 0.638

Certhia familiaris 0.931 0.949 0.930 0.720 0.757 0.712 0.724 0.751 0.716 0.662

Oriolus oriolus 0.932 0.948 0.929 0.708 0.748 0.715 0.739 0.772 0.739 0.734

Perisoreus infaustus 0.994 0.994 0.990 0.894 0.902 0.884 0.945 0.947 0.942 0.134

Fringilla montifringilla 0.985 0.987 0.985 0.934 0.922 0.925 0.919 0.910 0.914 0.244

Loxia leucoptera 0.986 0.989 0.985 0.805 0.792 0.793 0.926 0.924 0.922 0.075

L. pytyopsittacus 0.986 0.989 0.986 0.858 0.853 0.846 0.898 0.908 0.890 0.197

Carpodacus erythrinus 0.954 0.959 0.951 0.802 0.806 0.799 0.811 0.817 0.808 0.375

Pinicola enucleator 0.992 0.990 0.980 0.883 0.882 0.882 0.918 0.930 0.922 0.076

Emberiza rustica 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.958 0.953 0.953 0.968 0.957 0.966 0.274

Species of mires
Lagopus lagopus 0.990 0.993 0.987 0.886 0.903 0.869 0.900 0.921 0.887 0.230

Circus cyaneus 0.825 0.859 0.814 0.506 0.566 0.489 0.516 0.570 0.502 0.416

Grus grus 0.965 0.971 0.964 0.777 0.822 0.773 0.818 0.835 0.815 0.329

Pluvialis apricaria 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.876 0.875 0.882 0.895 0.899 0.902 0.257

Calidris alpina 0.949 0.946 0.948 0.695 0.699 0.692 0.800 0.788 0.790 0.136

Limicola falcinellus 0.996 0.995 0.996 0.896 0.885 0.896 0.954 0.959 0.960 0.067

Philomachus pugnax 0.934 0.937 0.930 0.655 0.704 0.642 0.735 0.739 0.716 0.254

Lymnocryptes minimus 0.964 0.953 0.962 0.741 0.730 0.746 0.797 0.800 0.795 0.088

Limosa lapponica 0.994 0.995 0.994 0.752 0.766 0.763 0.986 0.988 0.988 0.021

Numenius phaeopus 0.978 0.977 0.978 0.808 0.827 0.812 0.863 0.884 0.861 0.168
Tringa erythropus 0.989 0.988 0.988 0.821 0.822 0.824 0.913 0.907 0.887 0.067

T. nebularia 0.982 0.987 0.979 0.848 0.862 0.849 0.881 0.893 0.875 0.198

T. glareola 0.972 0.974 0.971 0.812 0.811 0.821 0.814 0.843 0.816 0.253

Phalaropus lobatus 0.987 0.989 0.988 0.862 0.883 0.871 0.937 0.940 0.930 0.106

Asio flammeus 0.849 0.869 0.841 0.548 0.570 0.542 0.511 0.578 0.501 0.370

Anthus pratensis 0.977 0.979 0.975 0.857 0.849 0.839 0.861 0.860 0.846 0.619

A. cervinus 0.983 0.975 0.983 0.903 0.900 0.912 0.924 0.940 0.925 0.035

Motacilla flava 0.815 0.865 0.814 0.361 0.422 0.370 0.535 0.618 0.517 0.858

Lanius excubitor 0.815 0.885 0.810 0.494 0.623 0.479 0.492 0.622 0.479 0.510

Calcarius lapponicus 0.993 0.993 0.992 0.852 0.894 0.837 0.928 0.916 0.925 0.070
Emberiza pusilla 0.972 0.986 0.970 0.754 0.742 0.738 0.924 0.904 0.921 0.041
Species of marshlands
Botaurus stellaris 0.901 0.914 0.898 0.667 0.726 0.668 0.676 0.738 0.670 0.357

Ixobrychus minutes 0.867 0.879 0.865 0.564 0.584 0.556 0.588 0.600 0.579 0.402

Circus aeruginosus 0.886 0.898 0.889 0.612 0.635 0.613 0.611 0.634 0.610 0.571

C. pygargus 0.821 0.857 0.810 0.495 0.553 0.480 0.515 0.559 0.502 0.413

Porzana porzana 0.829 0.863 0.829 0.568 0.600 0.562 0.570 0.600 0.568 0.427

P. parva 0.864 0.872 0.862 0.522 0.528 0.513 0.606 0.606 0.611 0.163

Gallinago gallinago 0.965 0.966 0.963 0.789 0.826 0.792 0.807 0.832 0.813 0.647

G. media 0.934 0.948 0.938 0.521 0.605 0.564 0.779 0.808 0.778 0.090

Limosa limosa 0.881 0.901 0.872 0.595 0.652 0.572 0.657 0.683 0.628 0.254

Tringa totanus 0.845 0.882 0.830 0.568 0.633 0.550 0.568 0.638 0.552 0.543
Locustella luscinioides 0.833 0.850 0.843 0.479 0.512 0.496 0.520 0.525 0.555 0.350

Acrocephalus paludicola 0.919 0.912 0.913 0.316 0.303 0.303 0.740 0.708 0.745 0.025

A. arundinaceus 0.900 0.912 0.898 0.654 0.673 0.650 0.645 0.671 0.641 0.601

Panurus biarmicus 0.815 0.850 0.813 0.452 0.486 0.434 0.458 0.537 0.456 0.183

Remiz pendulinus 0.873 0.889 0.869 0.585 0.609 0.581 0.594 0.620 0.590 0.439

Emberiza aureola 0.967 0.970 0.967 0.608 0.574 0.617 0.827 0.883 0.856 0.031

E. schoeniclus 0.907 0.916 0.903 0.628 0.654 0.617 0.696 0.712 0.700 0.794
Species of arctic mountain habitats
Lagopus muta 0.980 0.977 0.981 0.866 0.860 0.857 0.873 0.871 0.877 0.120

Buteo lagopus 0.998 0.996 0.992 0.946 0.926 0.931 0.971 0.951 0.954 0.148

Charadrius hiaticula 0.958 0.954 0.959 0.789 0.784 0.778 0.804 0.812 0.811 0.272

C. morinellus 0.964 0.968 0.964 0.739 0.764 0.704 0.836 0.865 0.840 0.075

Calidris temminckii 0.989 0.990 0.987 0.789 0.809 0.785 0.938 0.935 0.930 0.067

Stercorarius longicaudus 0.995 0.996 0.994 0.795 0.808 0.753 0.979 0.978 0.964 0.043

Nyctea scandiaca 0.994 0.996 0.994 0.853 0.856 0.850 0.964 0.972 0.959 0.049

Eremophila alpestris 0.907 0.929 0.908 0.465 0.582 0.446 0.670 0.718 0.699 0.057

Luscinia svecica 0.862 0.899 0.856 0.582 0.635 0.560 0.552 0.626 0.559 0.348

Carduelis hornemanni 0.994 0.995 0.993 0.824 0.825 0.810 0.981 0.980 0.980 0.030
Plectrophenax nivalis 0.995 0.987 0.995 0.900 0.898 0.892 0.949 0.919 0.943 0.073

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Appendix 5. Mean probability (± standard deviation) in occurrence of species groups in 1971–2000 based on climatic variables. Mean probability is presented both in 5% hotspot squares of protected areas and in randomly selected unprotected squares in the different vegetation zones. Number of species (n) in the different groups: all species, n = 100, forest species, n = 51, mire species, n = 21, marshland species, n = 17, Arctic mountain species, n =11.
___________________________________________________________________________
Species Southern boreal Middle boreal Northern boreal

group _____________________ _____________________ _____________________


Protected Unprotected Protected Unprotected Protected Unprotected

___________________________________________________________________________


All species 0.504±0.022 0.513±0.024 0.538±0.019 0.534±0.018 0.548±0.013 0.562±0.025

Forest 0.573±0.030 0.573±0.032 0.590±0.008 0.584±0.016 0.472±0.016 0.542±0.037

Mire 0.464±0.059 0.498±0.061 0.646±0.059 0.645±0.048 0.869±0.039 0.819±0.073

Marshland 0.346±0.037 0.353±0.031 0.255±0.048 0.256±0.042 0.179±0.006 0.180±0.005



Mountain – – – – 0.862±0.036 0.753±0.122

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