C/o Alberta Grain Commission




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Ethanol Production in Alberta
Final Report

April 2000


Prepared For:
Interdepartmental Ethanol Committee

Government of Alberta

Ethanol Production in Alberta
Final Report

April 2000

Prepared For:
Interdepartmental Ethanol Committee

Government of Alberta
c/o Alberta Grain Commission

Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development

#305, 7000-113 Street

Edmonton, Alberta

T6H 5T6

Prepared By:
Cheminfo Services Inc.

1706 Avenue Rd., Suite 4

Toronto, ON

L3R 7W5

Telephone: (416) 785-9051

Fax: (416) 785-9876

e-mail: Proestos@netcom.ca
In association with:
(S&T)2 Consultants Inc.

Vancouver, BC
and
Cemcorp Ltd.

Mississauga, ON

Table of Contents


1. Executive Summary 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Summary of Conclusions 1

1.3 Ethanol Market Overview 6

1.4 Production, Energy, and Environmental Emissions 7

1.5 Comparison of Fuel Alternatives 15

1.6 Ethanol Plant Economics 15

1.7 Summary of Socio-Economic Studies 17

1.8 Potential Socio-Economic Impacts for Alberta 18

1.9 Stakeholder Policy Input and Additional Considerations 19



2. Introduction 22

2.1 Background 22

2.2 Overview of Research Methodology 23

3. Ethanol Business System 24

3.1 Overall Ethanol Industry Structure 24

3.2 Government Influences 24

3.3 Alberta’s Unique Economic Context 27

3.4 Ethanol Market Overview 33

3.5 Wheat Gluten Market Overview 54



4. Comparison of Fuel Alternatives 58

4.1 Summary 58

4.2 Vehicle Technologies and Emission Standards 58

4.3 Gasoline and Hydrocarbon Blending Components 61

4.4 Oxygenates 67

4.5 Propane 71

4.6 Natural Gas 73

4.7 Biodiesel 74



5. Ethanol Production Technology 77

5.1 Ethanol Production Models 77

5.2 Raw Materials 79

5.3 Ethanol Production Models for Alberta 85

5.4 Ethanol Plant Economics 90

5.5 Technology Developments 97



6. Ethanol Lifecycle Analysis for Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 99

6.1 Introduction 99

6.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 103

6.3 Energy Inputs and Outputs 123

6.4 Other Environmental Considerations 131

7. Review of Ethanol Socio-Economic Studies 150

7.1 Summary 150

7.2 United States Studies 150

7.3 Canadian Studies 158

7.4 Studies in Other Countries 161

8. Potential Socio-Economic Impacts For Alberta 163

8.1 Summary 163

8.2 Scope and Methodology 165

8.3 Impacts on Agricultural Sector 168

8.4 Impacts from Ethanol Production 172

8.5 Impacts from Capital Construction 174

8.6 Impacts from Government Expenditures 175

8.7 Impacts on Consumers 175

8.8 Impacts on Oil, Refining and Gasoline Marketing Sector 176

8.9 Net Impacts on Economic Activity 178

8.10 Employment 178

8.11 Government Revenues 179



9. Ethanol Policies in North America 182

9.1 Ethanol Programs in the United States and Canada 182



10. Stakeholder Input and Additional Considerations 189

10.1 Introduction 189

10.2 Scope of Analysis 190

10.3 Environment Perspectives 191

10.4 Refinery, Wholesaler, Retailer Considerations 192

10.5 Incentives and Ethanol Plant Financing 199



10.6 Economic and Trade Considerations 205

11. References 215

Table of Tables



Table 1: Summary of Results and Conclusions of This Study 3

Table 2: North American Supply and Demand Trends for Ethanol 6

Table 3. Summary of Energy Requirements and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Grain Production 8

Table 4. Full Cycle Energy Balances for Transportation Fuels 9

Table 5. Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Alternative Fuels 9

Table 6. Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol 11

Table 7. Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 10% Ethanol Blends 12

Table 8. Summary of the Environmental Impacts of a
10% Ethanol Blend 13


Table 9: Ambient Air Quality in Edmonton and Calgary 13

Table 10: Summary of Key Properties of Gasoline Blending Components 15

Table 11: Size and Description of Model Facilities 16

Table 12: Summary of Revenues and Operating Expenses for Model Plants 16

Table 13: Summary of Socio-economic Impacts 18

Table 14: Economic Data for Alberta and Comparison to Canada 29

Table 15: Oil Production in Alberta 30

Table 16: Alberta’s Oil & Gas Energy Production and Consumption 30

Table 17: Major Participants in Alberta Oil and Gas, Petroleum Refining and Fuels Marketing Industries 31

Table 18: Alberta’s Major Petrochemical Industry Participants 33

Table 19: Economic Data on Alberta’s Agriculture Sector 33

Table 20: North American Capacity, Demand Trends for Ethanol 34

Table 21: Growth in Global Ethanol Production 35

Table 22: North American Ethanol Annual Capacity Trend 37

Table 23: Total North American Ethanol Demand 38

Table 24: Position of Ethanol in the Estimated North American Gasoline-Oxygenate Market 39

Table 25: Regional U.S. Ethanol Capacity Trends 39

Table 26: Year 2000 Capacity of U.S. Ethanol Producers 40

Table 27: Trend in United States Ethanol Demand 42

Table 28: Position of Ethanol in the U.S.
Gasoline-Oxygenate Market 43


Table 29: Position of Ethanol in Total On-Road Plus
Off-Road Fuel Markets 43


Table 30: Trend in Regional Canadian Ethanol Capacity 44

Table 31: Canadian Ethanol Plant Capacities 45

Table 32: Trend in Canadian Ethanol Demand 45

Table 33: Position of Ethanol in the Estimated Canadian
Gasoline-Oxygenate Market 46


Table 34: Provincial Ratios of Gasoline Use for Passenger Cars Versus Farm Vehicles 47

Table 35: Projected Trend in Vehicle Population in Alberta 47

Table 36: Trends in Transportation Fuel Demand in Alberta 48

Table 37: Approximate Number of Retail Stations in
Prairie Provinces, 1997 48


Table 38: Trend in Canadian Ethanol Trade 49

Table 39: Ethanol Trade November 1999 Year-to-Date 49

Table 40: Canadian Ethanol Exports by Destination, 1998 50

Table 41: Trend in Demand for Ethanol in PNW 51

Table 42: Ethanol Capacity in PNW 51

Table 43: Some Ethanol Producers in PNW 51

Table 44: Proposed Ethanol Capacity in the PNW 52

Table 45: Canadian Pricing Data for Ethanol 54

Table 46: United States Imports of Wheat Gluten 55

Table 47: Identified US Gluten/Ethanol Producers 56

Table 48: Summary of Key Properties of Gasoline Blending Components 58

Table 49. Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicle Standards in Canada
Exhaust Emissions (g/km) 59


Table 50. California Low Emission Vehicle Standards 60

Table 51: Typical Characteristics of Refinery Streams 63

Table 52: Emission Response to Fuel Parameter Changes 63

Table 53: US EPA Sulphur Reductions 67

Table 54: Information on Gasoline Oxygenates 67

Table 55: US Complex Model Results for Baseline Gasoline With and Without 11% MTBE 68

Table 56: US Complex Model Results for Baseline Gasoline With and Without 12.5% ETBE 69

Table 57: US Complex Model Results for Baseline Gasoline With and Without 5.7% Ethanol 71

Table 58: Impact of Biodiesel on Exhaust Emissions 76

Table 59: Typical Properties of Diesel Fuel and Biodiesels 77

Table 60: Examples of Production/Business Models
in Ethanol Industry 78


Table 61: Agronomic Data for Alberta Crops Compared to Corn 81

Table 62: Energy Requirements for Crop Production 83

Table 63: Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Wheat, Barley
and Corn Production 84


Table 64: Energy Requirements for CPS Wheat With and
Without Manure 84


Table 65: Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Wheat and Corn Production 84

Table 66: Summary of Ethanol Plant Inputs and Outputs 86

Table 67: Summary of Revenues and Operating Expenses for Model Plants 90

Table 68: Size and Description of Model Facilities 91

Table 69: Estimated Capital and Construction Employment 93

Table 70: Revenues for Model Plants 94

Table 71: Wheat Requirements for Model Plants 94

Table 72: Permanent Employment 96

Table 73: Utility Requirements for Model Plants 96

Table 74: Baseline Vehicle Fuel Economy for Modelling Use 104

Table 75: Crude Oil Slate Modeled 105

Table 76: Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Three Studies 105


Table 77: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Synthetic Crude Production 106

Table 78: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Gasoline and Low Sulphur Gasoline for 2000 106

Table 79: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Gasoline and Low Sulphur Gasoline 107

Table 80: Emission Factors Impacting Land Use Emissions 108

Table 81: CO2 Equivalent Upstream Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from an Integrated Cattle Feeding Operation 109

Table 82: CO2 Equivalent Vehicle Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from an Integrated Cattle Feeding Operation 110

Table 83: CO2 Equivalent Upstream Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from a Conventional Dry Mill Ethanol Plant 112

Table 84: CO2 Equivalent Vehicle Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from a Conventional Dry Mill Ethanol Plant 113

Table 85: CO2 Equivalent Upstream Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from a Combined Ethanol and Gluten Operation 114

Table 86: CO2 Equivalent Full Cycle Emissions for Gasoline and Ethanol from a Combined Ethanol and Gluten Operation 115

Table 87: Impact of Manure Use and Methane Credit from DG 115

Table 88: Impact of Lower Exhaust Emissions of Carbon Monoxide and Hydrocarbons on Full Cycle Emissions 116

Table 89: Summary and Comparison 117

Table 90: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Natural Gas and Gasoline 118

Table 91: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Propane and Gasoline 119

Table 92: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Gasoline, Diesel and Methanol for 2000 120

Table 93: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for a Methanol Fuel Cell Vehicle and Gasoline. 120

Table 94: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Diesel, Biodiesel for 2000 122

Table 95: CO2 Equivalent Emissions for Diesel and Biodiesel in a Heavy-Duty Truck 122

Table 96: Energy Distribution of Energy Used in
Crude Oil Production 124


Table 97: Energy Consumed in the Production of Gasoline and Diesel Fuel 124

Table 98: Energy Balance for Integrated Ethanol Plant Feedlot Compared to Gasoline. 125

Table 99: Energy Balance for a Conventional
Dry Mill Ethanol Plant 125


Table 100: Energy Balance for Gluten and Ethanol Plants Compared to Gasoline 127

Table 101: Energy Balance Summary 128

Table 102: Energy Consumed in the Production of Gasoline and Compressed Natural Gas. 129

Table 103: Energy Consumed in the Production of
Gasoline and Propane 129


Table 104: Energy Consumed in the Production of
Gasoline and Methanol 130


Table 105: Energy Consumed in the Production of Biodiesel and Diesel Fuel 130

Table 106: 1995 Emissions from Gasoline Vehicles in Alberta 132

Table 107: Calculated 1995 Vehicle Emission Rates 133

Table 108: Comparison of Environment Canada Emission Rates and Rates Calculated by Calibrated Delucchi Model 134

Table 109: Air Toxics Emission Rates 136

Table 110: Full Cycle Emissions of Individual GHG and Pollutants 137

Table 111: EPA Conclusions on CO Effects from the Use of Oxygenated Gasoline on Light Duty Gasoline Powered Vehicles 139

Table 112: EPA Conclusions on HC Effects from the Use of 10% Ethanol on Light Duty Gasoline Powered Vehicles 140

Table 113. Combined Impact of 10% Ethanol with One psi Higher Vapour Pressure on Total Hydrocarbon Emissions. 144

Table 114: US Complex Model Results for Baseline Gasoline With and Without 10% Ethanol 145

Table 115. Particulate Matter Emissions for Tier 0 and
Tier 1 Vehicles 145


Table 116. Full Cycle Emissions of Individual Gases and Pollutants 147

Table 117: Emission Testing of CME/Diesel Blends 148

Table 118: Summary of Socio-economic Impacts 164

Table 119: Summary of Agricultural Sector Impacts 168

Table 120. Changes in Gross Farm Income from Ethanol
Production in Alberta 169


Table 121: Total Farm Economic Activity 172

Table 122: Ethanol Plant Expenditures 173

Table 123: Economic Activity from Ethanol Production 174

Table 124. Economic Activity from Ethanol Plant Construction 174

Table 125: Summary of Economic Activity from Ethanol Production in Alberta 178

Table 126. Calculated Employment Impacts 179

Table 127: Key Alberta 1999 Economic Data 179

Table 128: Impact of an Expanded Ethanol Program on Government Revenues 181

Table 129: U.S. State Government Policies Supporting Ethanol 183

Table 130: Provincial Tax Exemptions for Ethanol
Transportation Fuel 187


Table 131: CPPI Member Companies – 1999 190

Table 132: Ambient Air Quality in Edmonton and Calgary 192

Table 133: Current and Proposed Canadian Air Quality Standards 192

Table 134: Canadian Market Application for Propane and Butane 193

Table 135: Historical Uses for Butane and Propane 194

Table 136: Octane Ratings and U.S. Prices For
Some Octane Products 195


Table 137: Projected of Gasoline and Diesel Consumption for Alberta and G/D Ratios for Major Provinces 196

Table 138: Approximate Alberta Gasoline Delivery Economics 206

Table 139: Estimated Ethanol Delivery Costs to Retail 207

Table 140: Wholesaler Incentive to Handle, Distribute Ethanol at Different Crude Oil and Related Gasoline Retail Prices 207

Table 141: Average Ethanol Profits For Minnesota
Between 1994 and 1996 208




Table of Figures


Figure 1: Major Components of Ethanol Business System 25

Figure 2. Gasoline Processing in a Modern Refinery 62

Figure 3: Biodiesel Production Process. 74

Figure 4: Full Cycle Including Fuel and Vehicle Cycles 99

Figure 5: Grain to Ethanol and Petroleum to Gasoline Fuel Cycles 99

Figure 6. Corn Price Equation 171
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